{"id":28369,"date":"2016-03-05T11:03:14","date_gmt":"2016-03-05T16:03:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.unionvilletimes.com\/?p=28369"},"modified":"2016-03-05T10:15:25","modified_gmt":"2016-03-05T15:15:25","slug":"if-trump-wins-gop-nod-what-happens-in-chester-county","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.unionvilletimes.com\/?p=28369","title":{"rendered":"If Trump wins GOP nod, what happens in Chester County?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Party insiders worry Trump could cost state legislative candidates<\/strong><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

By Mike McGann<\/strong><\/span>, Editor, The Times<\/em><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\"TimesPoliticsUnusual\"<\/a>We\u2019ve survived Super Tuesday (and Thursday night\u2019s PG-13 GOP debate) and the road the Pennsylvania primary elections gives us less than seven weeks to figure out what the heck is going on and what it might mean for November\u2019s elections.<\/span><\/p>\n

And while both parties have issues with insurgencies, angst and drama \u2014 let\u2019s be honest: the Republican Party is ripping itself to shreds. Depending on your point of view (and in Chester County, your geography) local Republicans are either delighted or horrified at the prospect of Donald Trump as your presidential nominee.<\/span><\/p>\n

While the national Democratic race has been more civil \u2014 and with Hillary Clinton all but the likely nominee \u2014 most of the anger has been related to the U.S. Senate seat and a couple of local Congressional races, where, as is typical, party leaders have jammed wildly unpopular candidates down the throats of local Democrats with fairly lousy results.<\/span><\/p>\n

Let us look at the Republicans first.<\/span><\/p>\n

The presidential race on the GOP side has been something of disaster. A wildly compelling mess, kind of like the movie Showgirls<\/em> \u2014 you know it\u2019s terrible, but every time you think it can\u2019t get worse, it does. One finds one\u2019s self almost forced to watch, just to see how low it can go.<\/span><\/p>\n

This isn\u2019t a fact lost on the average Republican voter, either. <\/span><\/p>\n

Polling suggests that GOP voters aren\u2019t thrilled with their options. Exit polls from seven early primary states (cited by FiveThirtyEight.com<\/a> \u2014 the gold standard for polling and analysis of political data) suggest Sen. Marco Rubio is the candidate Republican voters are most satisfied with, at a mere 53%. As a measuring stick: Mitt Romney at about the same point garnered a \u201csatisfied\u201d rating from GOP voters at 63%, while Rick Santorum pulled 55%. As a comparison, Sen. Ted Cruz gets a \u201csatisfied\u201d nod from 51% and Trump gets just 49%.<\/span><\/p>\n

In fairness, those numbers will improve for whomever the Republican nominee is \u2014 although the #stopTrump movement gives one pause \u2014 but they seem unlikely to reach the mid to high 70s typical of a major party nominee by the fall.<\/span><\/p>\n

So what to make of Republican candidates that no one is thrilled with (and a number of party voters activate despise), but at the same time, are generating exceptional voter turnout numbers in the primary and how to project that onto the November election and its impact down ballot in the U.S. Senate and congressional races?<\/span><\/p>\n

Further complicating the issue: the U.S. Senate Republicans refusal to even hold hearings for any Supreme Court nominee from President Barack Obama \u2014 which polling shows is more than slightly unpopular with the average voter.<\/span><\/p>\n

This should be of particular worry to U.S. Senator Pat Toomey. Despite the fact that the leaders of the state Democratic Party have pretty much done everything that is possible to assure an easy Toomey reelection ride (more on that further on down), the specter of Trump and the Supreme Court mess put his chances of keeping his seat deeply, deeply in doubt.<\/span><\/p>\n

And while local Congress members have little to worry about (except in their own party, of course) where incumbents Ryan Costello, Pat Meehan and newcomer Lloyd Smucker (running to replace the retiring Joe Pitts) have fairly safe gerrymandered districts (although the latter two have right-wing primary challengers), it could hurt some state legislative races, if GOP voters are either angry or depressed and stay home on election day.<\/span><\/p>\n

A handful of local Republican officials have told me privately that Trump at the top of the ticket would be a \u201cnightmare\u201d for candidates lower down the ballot and put state house seats that would normally be safe \u2014 the 156th and the 158th among others \u2014 in doubt and doom State Rep. Harry Lewis\u2019 chances to get reelected in the 74th (already a tough hurdle in a year with large Democratic voter turnout).<\/span><\/p>\n

Longer term, the already simmering civil war in the local Republican Party (the Tea Partiers versus the more moderate old-school GOP leadership) could explode, either with a Trump campaign that fails miserably or if Trump is kneecapped by the party \u201cestablishment\u201d \u2014 and somehow he is deprived of the nomination through shenanigans at the GOP Convention in Cleveland.<\/span><\/p>\n

Maybe the saving grace is that so many Republicans enjoy a deep-seated hatred of Clinton (some of it rational, some of it fed by completely made-up accounts of her conduct peddled as \u201cnews\u201d by folks on Facebook) that many would show up to vote against her. <\/span><\/p>\n

The fly in the ointment: if Trump is the nominee, what will come out about him this summer and fall (and pretty much all of it will be documented, provable and true) will make Hillary seem like Mother Teresa in comparison. Anyone who worked in the New York media market in the late 1980s and early 1990s (and had a couple of media-event brushes with The Donald, as I did) can tick off five or or six quick things off the top of their head that will utterly terrify local Republicans.<\/span><\/p>\n

It will make great theater and terrible politics.<\/span><\/p>\n

And while the Democratic race has been calmer \u2014 note the lack of discussions of candidate\u2019s sexual organs \u2014 nationally, Democrats will have a bit of work to do to cope with anger, especially among the Bernie Sanders\u2019 supporters.<\/span><\/p>\n

The race for many Democrats has been one of \u201chead versus heart.\u201d Many of the things Sanders has harped on are valid points \u2014 money is a corrupting influence in politics and corporations have way more voice than average people (something even Trump is talking about) \u2014 so Democrats\u2019 hearts love Sanders\u2019 ability to keep hammering on that point. But\u2026and there\u2019s always a but\u2026the brain says a rumpled, cantankerous Jewish Socialist from Vermont, via Brooklyn, could hand the Democrats a George McGovern-sized wipeout in the fall. For many Democrats, Clinton \u2014 who will be undoubtedly subjected to more abuse of the Swift-Boating style \u2014 is a safer choice, one who can keep the Obama coalition (which won twice, despite impressive amounts of vilification \u2014 and probably should be a lesson to GOP operatives, but won\u2019t be) together and win in November.<\/span><\/p>\n

If you read Facebook (which itself is kind of like a digital disaster area), you see some of the Sanders\u2019 supporters have the same anger management issues as the GOP Benghazi stormtroopers \u2014 irrational invective spewing out like a rabid dog. And while most rational folks tune it out (and by the way, that will make legitimate questions about Clinton\u2019s character and honesty harder to get through the media noise) and get back to their cat pictures, it\u2019s going to take some work to get the Bernie backers off their ledges.<\/span><\/p>\n

Of course, the specter of Trump as president solves much, in that regard.<\/span><\/p>\n

* * *<\/span><\/p>\n

While Toomey is likely and should be losing sleep over his senate race, the one bit of solace he can enjoy is that he\u2019s running against the Pennsylvania Democratic Party. Calling that organization a Clown Car is an insult to clowns everywhere.<\/span><\/p>\n

But you have to give them credit: by forcing the hapless Katie McGinty (a Chester County native and former DEP Secretary) on Democrats, they\u2019ve done the nearly impossible: made Joe Sestak into a sympathetic character.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sestak \u2014 the former Congressman who lost a narrow race to Toomey in 2010 \u2014 is about as warm and cuddly as sandpaper and twice as abrasive (especially when it comes to working with local Democratic officials and his constantly shuffling staff). But, without question the man is bright, knows his policy stuff and has no fear of taking on the establishment.<\/span><\/p>\n

A few years back that might have been seen as detriment, but now Sestak has become the anti-establishment candidate (ruining such a role for the towering and tattooed John Fetterman), Democrats, increasingly frustrated by the state party\u2019s ability to consistently bring the the stupid, are rallying around Sestak and seem poised to again reject McGinty, who seems nice but badly over her head, as she was during her ill-fated Gubernatorial run in 2014. Her role in the state budget stalemate as Gov. Tom Wolf\u2019s Chief of Staff doesn\u2019t much help, either.<\/span><\/p>\n

Many have placed blame on former Gov. Ed Rendell \u2014 who does appear to be pulling the strings here. It\u2019s high time for Rendell to retire to pontificating about the Eagles and quit messing things up for his fellow Democrats.<\/span><\/p>\n

* * *<\/span><\/p>\n

Meanwhile in America\u2019s (arguably) most Gerrymandered Congressional district (PA-7), a number of Democrats, especially in the Delaware County portion of the district, are pretty angry with the clueless twits at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC or D-Trip for those in the politics biz).<\/span><\/p>\n

The D-Trip, in it\u2019s infinite wisdom, is backing Bill Golderer \u2014 who apparently doesn\u2019t live in the district (not that its required) \u2014 over Delco\u2019s own Mary Ellen Balchunis, who ran for the seat in 2014 and lives in the district, in the race against incumbent Pat Meehan.<\/span><\/p>\n

I have to be honest \u2014 I don\u2019t know Golderer, although I expect to speak with him in the next few weeks. I do know and have known Balchunis for more than a decade, as she has been an active Democrat in the district and county, and strongly supportive of local races and candidates. Also, as a previous candidate, she has better name ID than Golderer, who generally seems to get a \u201cwho?\u201d when I ask folks about him.<\/span><\/p>\n

The DCCC appears to have made matters worse by sending in a campaign manager from out of state, with no connections, relationships or understanding of the district or region. This is a mistake that the D-Trip (and its state cousin, the House Democratic Campiagn Committee) make constantly, sending in young, inexperienced operatives who don\u2019t know the area and rub folks the wrong way. <\/span><\/p>\n

At minimum, the D-Trip should have stayed out of this primary fight \u2014 all they did was make folks angry and solidify support for Balchunis (who was also endorsed by the Chester County Democratic Committee).<\/span><\/p>\n

At maximum, they should have talked to local leaders and supported Balchunis, instead.<\/span><\/p>\n

But, you know, I\u2019m sure they know more than the folks actually on the ground or in the district.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Party insiders worry Trump could cost state legislative candidates By Mike McGann, Editor, The Times We\u2019ve survived Super Tuesday (and Thursday night\u2019s PG-13 GOP debate) and the road the Pennsylvania primary elections gives us less than seven weeks to figure out what the heck is going on and what it might mean for November\u2019s elections. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":28368,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,7],"tags":[7372,29,8137,6860,6859,2318],"class_list":["post-28369","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-commentary","category-featured","tag-7th-congressional-district","tag-chester-county","tag-donald-j-trump","tag-joe-sestak","tag-pat-toomey","tag-president"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.unionvilletimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28369","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.unionvilletimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.unionvilletimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.unionvilletimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.unionvilletimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=28369"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.unionvilletimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28369\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":28370,"href":"https:\/\/www.unionvilletimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28369\/revisions\/28370"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.unionvilletimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/28368"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.unionvilletimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=28369"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.unionvilletimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=28369"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.unionvilletimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=28369"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}